研究发现武汉新冠患者死亡率低于此前预判_OK阅读网
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研究发现武汉新冠患者死亡率低于此前预判
Coronavirus Death Rate in Wuhan Is Lower than Previously Thought, Study Finds

来源:纽约时报    2020-03-20 11:51



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        A new study reports that people who became sick from the coronavirus in the Chinese city where the outbreak began likely had a lower death rate than previously thought.        一项新的研究报告指出,在疫情首先暴发的中国城市,冠状病毒感染者的死亡率可能比之前以为的要低。
        The study, published Thursday in the journal Nature Medicine, calculated that people with coronavirus symptoms in Wuhan, China, had a 1.4 percent likelihood of dying. Some previous estimates have ranged from 2 percent to 3.4 percent.        该研究于周四发表在《自然医学》(Nature Medicine)杂志上,它计算出在中国武汉有冠状病毒症状的人的死亡率可能为1.4%。先前的一些估计在2%至3.4%之间。
        Assessing the risk of death in Wuhan is instructive because it provides a snapshot of the epidemic from the beginning, when doctors were scrambling to treat people with the brand-new virus and hospitals were overwhelmed. Some experts say that such a benchmark — known as the symptomatic case fatality rate — could be lower in countries like the United States if measures like widespread business and school closures and appeals for social distancing have the desired effect of slowing the spread of the disease.        评估武汉市的死亡风险具有指导意义,因为它简要反映了疫情从一开始的状况,当时医生们忙于治疗这种新型病毒的感染者,医院不堪重负。一些专家说,如果大范围关闭商业和学校,以及呼吁保持社交距离能够达到减缓疾病传播的预期效果,那么在美国等国家,这种基准——被称为有症状的病死率——可能会更低。
        “The experience gained from managing those initial patients and the increasing availability of newer, and potentially better, treatment modalities to more patients would presumably lead to fewer deaths, all else being equal,” wrote the study authors, a team that included scientists from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.        包括哈佛大学陈曾熙公共卫生学院(Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)的科学家在内的研究团队写道:“在其他条件不变的情况下,从管理这些最初的患者中获得的经验以及更新、可能更好的治疗方法越来越多,可能会使死亡数字降低。”
        But a 1.4 percent case fatality rate still means many deaths. By comparison, the average seasonal flu kills about 0.1 percent of the people it infects in the United States.        但是1.4%的病死率仍然意味着许多人死亡。相比之下,在美国,季节性流感平均导致0.1%的感染者死亡。
        The new study calculated estimates based on cases in Wuhan as of Feb. 29, when there had been 48,557 confirmed patients and 2,169 deaths. The risk of death increased with age, “unlike any previously reported pandemic or seasonal influenza,” the researchers wrote.        这项新的研究基于截至2月29日武汉市的病例进行计算,当时已有48557例确诊患者和2169例死亡。研究人员写道,死亡风险随着年龄的增长而增加,“与以前报道的任何大流行病或季节性流感不同”。
        While the overall symptomatic case fatality rate was 1.4 percent, for people who were 60 and older it was 2.6 percent. That makes the older age group about five times more likely to die than people with symptoms who were 30 to 59 years old, whose risk of dying was 0.5 percent. For those under 30, it was 0.3 percent.        虽然有症状病死率总体为1.4%,但60岁及以上的人的病死率为2.6%。这使得年龄较大的人群死亡可能性是30岁至59岁的有症状患者(他们的死亡风险为0.5%)的五倍。对于30岁以下的人群,这一比例为0.3%。
        The risk of developing symptomatic infection itself also increased with age, about 4 percent per year for people aged 30 to 60, the study said. The authors estimated that people 60 and older were twice as likely to develop symptoms as people aged 30 to 59 and that people under 30 have about one-sixth the chance of developing symptoms from the infection. That suggests, as has other research, that many young people may be unknowingly infected and able to spread the virus to others.        该研究说,因感染本身而发展出症状的风险也随着年龄的增长而增加,从30至60岁每增加一岁约多出4%的风险。作者估计,60岁及60岁以上人群出现症状的可能性是30至59岁人群的两倍,而30岁以下人群出现感染症状的几率约为六分之一。与其他研究一样,这表明许多年轻人可能在不知不觉中被感染,并能够将病毒传播给其他人。
        The researchers noted that their estimates faced some limitations, including that the study would not reflect the many people who were not tested and diagnosed, and that the data might not adequately capture people who were infected in Wuhan and traveled elsewhere. And although their estimated risk of death is lower than previous guesses, the authors make it clear that the virus will undoubtedly leave many casualties in its wake.        研究人员指出,他们的估算面临一些局限性,包括该研究不能反映出许多未经检测和诊断的人,并且该数据可能无法涵盖在武汉被感染后流向其他地区的人。而且,尽管他们估计的死亡风险低于先前的猜测,但作者明确表示,该病毒无疑会导致许多人死亡。
        The findings “indicate that Covid-19 transmission is difficult to control,” they wrote, adding that “we might expect at least half of the population to be infected, even with aggressive use of community mitigation measures.”        他们写道,这些发现“表明新冠病毒的传播很难控制”,并且“即使积极采取社区缓解措施,我们也可以预计至少一半的人口会受到感染”。
                
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